The War in Ukraine as Seen from Italy
Part II
As I write this Russia has claimed victory in conquering the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol on the Azov Sea. Several thousand Ukrainian citizens and military forces had holed up in the steel mill, Azavstol, which functioned as a bunker made up of approximately 4.2 miles of fortified, labyrinth tunnels. Putin initially decided not to attack the plant but ordered it surrounded so that, “..not even a fly comes through.” The Ukrainians taking shelter there were essentially entombed and, with Putin’s order, no Russian lives would be lost in a fight to take over the mill. With food and water limited and injured people among those sheltering in the tunnels, the situation grew more dire week by week. In mid-April a Major in the Ukrainian Marine force, posted a video saying that “We are probably facing out last days, if not hours” adding that the Russians outnumber them ten to one. (Major Serhiy Volynskyy on Wednesday April 20, 2022). Finally at the end of April civilians were allowed to leave and recently the Ukrainian soldiers have been evacuated to an uncertain and worrisome fate as the Russian military claims its hold on the city.
Conquering Mariupol gives Russia access to a land bridge linking the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to Crimea with its location on the Black Sea. Because of Mariupol’s critical location the city has endured some of the most brutal Russian attacks of the war. Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed there and more thousands have left the city; it is estimated that out of a population of 420,000 only about 120,000 remain, perhaps fewer as of the date of this writing. And the city itself has been bombed so extensively that its infrastructure cannot host a living, thriving community any time soon.
With western countries providing equipment and training to bolster Ukraine’x war effort some analysts predict a protracted war in the Donbas region where the two pro-Russian breakaway regions, Luhansk and Donetsk, lie. Although citizens of these areas may not wish to be caught in a real life tug of war between Russia and the Ukraine, the Donbas would be a prize for Russia and the regions’s affiliation with the Ukraine has not been a fully committed one; pro-Russian separatists comprise about a third of the population with the remaining two thirds loyal to Ukraine.
Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine was originally presented as a means of freeing people living in Donbas. Notably, two referendums were held in Ukraine in 2014 to determine the status of the Donbas. In the first, Donbas citizens voted to affirm their ties to Russia; the second referendum, this one with pan-Ukrainian participation, established the Donbas status as Ukrainian. In both elections charges of fraud by the losing segment of the population followed the vote, but in the end the second prevailed.
It is worth noting that during the turbulent times in which these elections occurred, Ukraine’s president was Vicktor Yanukovych, a Russian loyalist. He was overthrown in 2014 by parliamentarian action, largely due to his ties to Putin, and he later moved to Russia. Subsequently Ukraine gravitated toward a more western ideology and Volodymyr Zelensky, current president of Ukraine, was elected to lead the country in 2019. Like other former USSR countries seeking a more democratic system Ukraine is regarded by the Kremlin as a hostile and traitorous country.1
Behind all the death and destruction Russia has inflicted on Ukraine, lies Putin’s goal of restoring the stature of the former USSR. He views the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 as a humiliation and regards the west, including the European Union and America, as the enemy. Putin’s goals and his governance of Russia are heavily influenced by the philosopher Ivan Iyin (April 9, 1883-Dec. 21, 1954) and recently by Alexander Dugin, sometimes called ‘Putin’s Brain.’ (born 7 January 1962). Both men adhere, or in the case of Lyin adhered, to a far right view of the world and Russia’s role in it. In their view, dictatorship is not only efficient, but, if working as it is meant to, shields a country from the range of human viewpoints and behaviours that make democracy a sometimes messy form of government (as is now so evident in the U S). In a dictatorship as viewed by these two philosophers, Russian citizens have few means of determining the course or features of their country, leaving virtually all power in the hands of the dictator whose “ends justify means” approach shapes the resolution of any matter.
In the eyes of the western world, subjecting a sovereign country to the horrors inflicted on Ukraine, especially when there had been no direct provocation, lies outside any definition of normalcy. But I don’t believe that Putin is “unhinged,” as some have charged. Rather that he is a cold rationalist following the credo of his mentors and of former Soviet Union dictators. He initiated his “special operation” in Ukraine with an intimidating and no doubt calculated warning to NATO and the west saying that if they joined Ukraine’s counteroffensive unimaginable consequences would result. The spector of World War III, fought with enhanced weapons, hung over his words, and he underscored his threats by raising Russia’s nuclear preparedness to combat level. The west responded cautiously, as Putin seems to have presumed they would, reduced to implementing sanctions but eschewing a military response as Russian forces battered Kiev in the early days of the war.
In spite of an apparently mismanaged military along with setbacks as Ukraine regained occupied territories, Russia has captured land of strategic value to its country allowing Putin to claim success. Interestingly rumours began to circulate at about the same time that Putin is in ill health, unstable and before too long would be forced to relinquish his position as Russia’s dictator. Although these stories are currently making headlines I read them with a heavy dose of skepticism. They may be wishful thinking, as Putin supporters suggest, or even a ploy meant to confuse western assessment of the situation. Still, in a tiny corner of possibility lies the chance that the rumours will prove to be true.
From the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky has predicted that a Russian victory in the Ukraine is likely to be followed by invasions in other former Soviet lands, if not immediately then eventually. Inevitably, consideration of a changing world is before us as countries align or realign in the face of this war. Already, Finland and Sweden have recently requested fast track membership into the European Union and Ukraine has already done so. In Belarus, while its leader Alexander Lukashenko supports Putin, the population does not; in which direction will Belarus turn in the future? And then there is Hungary, a member of the EU but with a populist leader, Victor Orban, who labels Ukraine an enemy and opposes sanctions against Russia. So we watch the daily reports, wishing for positive news, speculating that we are on the brink of a new era, wondering what will it look like and how will it affect us.
Standing on the shifting sands of world order is disconcerting, for sure, but if there is a silver lining to this dangerous, ego-driven war it is the EU’s heightened concern about its heavy reliance on oil imports from Russia. Already nations are looking at alternatives and not only for importing fossil fuels from other countries but solar and wind options as well. The long overdue need for action to combat climate change has been given new impetus as a result of a war that brutalised a nation.
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1The following is a list of countries once belonging to USSR. Though now independent, a number maintain close relationships with Moscow (Belarus, Kazakstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan)
USSR Present Day Country
- Estonian SSR Estonia
- Lithuanian SSR Lithuanian
- Latvian SSR Latvia
- Azerbaijan SSR Azerbaijan
- Georgian SSR Georgia
- Russian SFSR Russian Federation
- Uabek SSR Uzbekistan
- Moldavian SSR Moldova
- Ukrainian SSR Ukraine
- Byelorussian SSR Belarus
- Turkmen SSR. Turkmenistan
- Armenian SSR Armenia
- Tajik SSR Tajikistan
- Kazakh SSR Kazakhstan
- Kirghiz SSR Kyrgyzstan
…
Lurching towards Italy 